A transparent, rules-based handicapping screen for the 152nd Kentucky Derby. Eleven classical theories applied to every contender. No black-box predictions, no proprietary algorithms. Just the math, on the table, for you to argue with.
For decades, racing analysts have identified statistical patterns shared by Derby winners. Ten Furlongs applies eleven of the most documented theories to every horse in this year's field . pass or fail, on each one. The total score isn't a prediction; it's a transparent ranking you can audit factor by factor.
The horse must run the final 3/8 mile of its last prep in :38 or better, or the final 1/8 in :13 or better. The single most predictive Derby factor.
A career-best Beyer Speed Rating of 95 or higher. The gold standard of speed handicapping that separates contenders from pretenders.
A Brisnet Speed Rating of 100 or higher in the last prep race. Validates the horse has Derby-caliber speed approaching race day.
Late Pace rating of 100 or higher measures pure closing ability. Back-to-back triple-digit ratings is the gold standard signal.
Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass, or Wood Memorial. The G1 and G2 dirt routes that produce most winners.
The horse must show competitiveness against quality. Finishing fifth or worse is a meaningful red flag heading into a sharper field.
The Apollo Curse: only Justify (2018) won the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882.
Sire is a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/16 miles or further on dirt. Stamina pedigree is the best clue to whether a horse will see out ten furlongs.
Inside posts (1 and 2) get pinched, lose ground, and rarely recover. Post 1 has won approximately 8 percent of Derbies historically.
Recent Derbies favor pressers and stalkers. Pure deep closers can win when pace collapses, but it is lottery-style.
When a horse runs its career-best speed in its final prep, regression risk is real. The peak came at the wrong time.
Beyond pass and fail. The model converts factor scores into win probabilities and compares them to morning line odds. Edge is where value lives.
Six interconnected views designed for everyone from newcomers to serious handicappers. No accounts, no email, no friction . just open the app.
Every contender in the 2026 Derby with their score, odds, and value edge. Sort by post, odds, score, Beyer, Late Pace, jockey form, or fastest final fractions.
Tag any horse with what you like . Late Pace, FFT pass, value bet . and compare your shortlist side-by-side in cards or matrix view.
Construct WPS, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta tickets. See implied probability, combinations covered, and ticket cost . without the parimutuel guesswork of payout estimation.
Read what each handicapping factor measures, why it matters, the historical track record, and which 2026 contenders pass or fail.
Every Kentucky Derby from 1995 to 2025: full charts, winning times, fractional splits, and a retrospective qualifier scorecard for each winner.
No paywall, no subscription, no email required. Built as a labor of love. If it helps you Saturday, share it with someone who'd appreciate it.
A horse passes the screen by checking boxes that decades of Derby winners have shared. No machine learning. No proprietary algorithm picking winners. Just transparent arithmetic applied to documented data, displayed cleanly. If you don't agree with a threshold, the math is right there for you to argue with.
Enter the field, build your shortlist, sketch your tickets. Twenty horses. Eleven theories. Ten furlongs at Churchill Downs. The numbers, on the table.
Enter the Field