The Field
Q = Qualifying Factors (out of 11)
M/L = Morning Line Odds
TRN = Trainer · JKY = Jockey
How to read this field ▾
BeyerCareer-best Beyer Speed Rating. 95+ is Derby-caliber.
LPBrisnet Late Pace from last prep. 100+ is the gold-standard closing signal.
F3/8Final 3/8 mile time of last prep. :38.00 or faster passes FFT.
Win%Jockey 2026 national win rate. 20%+ is elite.
M/LMorning line odds. "4-1" returns $4 plus stake per $1 bet.
E EP P SBrisnet running style. Pressers and stalkers (EP/P) win the Derby most often.
9/11Qualifying factors passed of 11. Tap a horse to see all factors.
FFT/Bris/LP/etc.Factor abbreviations shown in the green row under each name. These are the factors the horse passes.
Filters
Score · 11 factors max · tap any horse for full breakdown
The Methodology
Eleven
Theories
A horse passes the screen by checking boxes that decades of Derby winners have shared. Some factors carry decades of statistical weight; others are sharp tiebreakers.
The Archive
Past Winners
Thirty-one years of Derby finishes. Tap any year to read the chart and see which qualifiers the winner met.
1995. 2025
Each year shows the winner's name and 11-factor qualifier score (out of 11). Tap any year for the deep profile.
Build Your Card
The Bet
Builder
Construct WPS, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta tickets. See the implied hit probability and ticket cost based on current odds.
Your Saved Tickets
My Card
Reference these tickets at the window or sportsbook. Edit amounts, delete what changes your mind. Churchill Downs Derby Day minimums are enforced.
Build Your Own Model
The Predictor
Weight the eleven factors however you want. The model recomputes every horse's probability live. See your top 5, find hidden value, get an honest read on what your bias looks like.
About This Tool
What This Is
A transparent rules-based handicapping screen. not a black-box AI predictor.
app v33 · cache-bust 1777232919
Your Shortlist
My Notes
Horses you've liked are saved here for side-by-side comparison. Tap chips on any horse's page to add them.
Run the test
Pick the Winner
Choose a horse. See exactly why they could win — and where they're vulnerable.
Build your own table
Spreadsheet Tool
Pick which data points you want to see. Sort any column. Export as CSV.