Side-by-side picks for every race on Derby Day — Win/Place/Show, exotics, and a single Best Bet from each model. Plus our human panel: Papa Dude, Vinny Blond, Jon White, an algo, and a longshot specialist. The AI tip sheet for the 152nd Run for the Roses.
🤖 Open the AI Tip Sheet (PDF) →You're going to a Derby party. You're watching at home with friends. Most people pick on names and hat colors. You want to be the one who knows why Post 17 has never won. Why the favorite has lost seven straight. Why "Final Fractions" is the most predictive signal in the race.
You don't need to be a degenerate to sound like one. Ten Furlongs lays out the systems the betting world uses, and lets you talk about the race like you've been studying it for years. Because by Saturday, you will have been.
Beyer figures live in DRF. Brisnet ratings cost $40 a card. Post position trends are buried in BloodHorse archives. Jockey form is on Equibase. Pedigree analysis is on TrueNicks. Past Derby qualifiers are scattered across a dozen sources and editorials.
Nobody has put all of it in one place for the one race that actually matters. Ten Furlongs aggregates it cleanly, applies eleven classical handicapping theories with full transparency, and gives you a custom-weighting Predictor so you can build your own model. Every threshold is auditable. Every source is named.
For decades, racing analysts have identified statistical patterns shared by Derby winners. Ten Furlongs applies eleven of the most documented theories to every horse in this year's field . pass or fail, on each one. The total score isn't a prediction; it's a transparent ranking you can audit factor by factor.
The horse must run the final 3/8 mile of its last prep in :38 or better, or the final 1/8 in :13 or better. The single most predictive Derby factor.
A career-best Beyer Speed Rating of 95 or higher. The gold standard of speed handicapping that separates contenders from pretenders.
A Brisnet Speed Rating of 100 or higher in the last prep race. Validates the horse has Derby-caliber speed approaching race day.
Late Pace rating of 100 or higher measures pure closing ability. Back-to-back triple-digit ratings is the gold standard signal.
Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass, or Wood Memorial. The G1 and G2 dirt routes that produce most winners.
The horse must show competitiveness against quality. Finishing fifth or worse is a meaningful red flag heading into a sharper field.
The Apollo Curse: only Justify (2018) won the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882.
Sire is a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/16 miles or further on dirt. Stamina pedigree is the best clue to whether a horse will see out ten furlongs.
Each starting gate has its own Derby record. The 5 posts with sub-4% historical win rates (Posts 6, 11, 14, 17, 19) are the punishing draws.
Recent Derbies favor pressers and stalkers. Pure deep closers can win when pace collapses, but it is lottery-style.
When a horse runs its career-best speed in its final prep, regression risk is real. The peak came at the wrong time.
Beyond pass and fail. The model converts factor scores into win probabilities and compares them to morning line odds. Edge is where value lives.
Six interconnected views designed for everyone from newcomers to serious handicappers. No accounts, no email, no friction . just open the app.
Every contender in the 2026 Derby with their score, odds, and value edge. Sort by post, odds, score, Beyer, Late Pace, jockey form, or fastest final fractions.
Tag any horse with what you like . Late Pace, FFT pass, value bet . and compare your shortlist side-by-side in cards or matrix view.
Construct WPS, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta tickets. See implied probability, combinations covered, and ticket cost . without the parimutuel guesswork of payout estimation.
Read what each handicapping factor measures, why it matters, the historical track record, and which 2026 contenders pass or fail.
Every Kentucky Derby from 1995 to 2025: full charts, winning times, fractional splits, and a retrospective qualifier scorecard for each winner.
No paywall, no subscription, no email required. Built as a labor of love. If it helps you Saturday, share it with someone who'd appreciate it.
A horse passes the screen by checking boxes that decades of Derby winners have shared. No machine learning. No proprietary algorithm picking winners. Just transparent arithmetic applied to documented data, displayed cleanly. If you don't agree with a threshold, the math is right there for you to argue with.
Each contender's row shows a tight strip of figures. Here's what they mean and what's good.
View Horses, build your shortlist, sketch your tickets. Twenty horses. Eleven theories. Ten furlongs at Churchill Downs. The numbers, on the table.
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